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Johansen Test in Mathematica


A post from five years ago, How to run Johansen Test in Mathematica, requested the code for the Johansen test in Mathematica. However, the code that was offered had problems (incorrectly normalized eigenvectors, computational errors). As a better alternative, I'd like to post my Johansen test code here which I believe is correct. I've compared the output of this code with the output of the Matlab Johansen code in the Spatial Econometrics library and they agree. I've added my Mathematica code as an attachment to this post, "JohansenTest.nb".

The code includes a few subroutines that allows the output from the Johansen test to be displayed in a nice tabular form, such as:

Johansen Test Output

This table shows the results for a cointegrated portfolio of three Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), having two cointegrating relationships (r <= 0 and r <= 1) for both the trace and eigen statistics (at > 99% confidence, except for the eigen statistic for r <= 0, which is > 95% confidence).

I use this code to generate the weights for a cointegrated porfolio of ETFs which I've trading profitably for several months now. I usually set order = 2, and detrend = 1. That seems to give the best results for the portfolios I've looked at. As in Ernie Chan's Algorithmic Trading: Winning Strategies and Their Rationale, I apply a Kalman filter to the ETF data and Johansen weights to improve the trading algorithm performance. If there is interest, I can discuss that in future posts, as well. (Chan's Kalman filter discussion is very incomplete, in my opinion.)

I've left a few optional "debug" statements in the code to allow you to check that the matrices are properly normalized. These lines can be deleted. Note that the Johansen weights are the rows of the eigenvector matrix, not the columns (as in the Spatial Economentrics code). I feel this is more consistent with the way that Mathematica handles vectors and matrices.

For detail on the equations on which this code is based, see this 2005 article by B.E. Sorenson: Cointegration.

I welcome any feedback.

POSTED BY: Amanda Gerrish
10 days ago

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