# \[NB\] Basic experiments workflow for simple epidemiological models **URL:** \ **Category:** Staff Picks\ **Tags:** biological-sciences, medical-sciences, operations-research, social-sciences, equation-solving, interface-construction, modeling, staff-pick, living-systems\ **Created:** [March 10, 2020, 8:51pm UTC](https://community.wolfram.com/t/nb-basic-experiments-workflow-for-simple-epidemiological-models/15482 "2020-03-10T20:51:05Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 11\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![antononcube](https://yyz1.discourse-cdn.com/wolfram/user_avatar/community.wolfram.com/antononcube/32/7348_2.png) [@antononcube](https://community.wolfram.com/u/antononcube)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2020, 8:51pm UTC](https://community.wolfram.com/t/nb-basic-experiments-workflow-for-simple-epidemiological-models/15482/1 "2020-03-10T20:51:05Z")
_MODERATOR NOTE: coronavirus resources & updates:_ [⭐ [COVID] Computational Research HUB For Novel Coronavirus: Data, Code, Visualizations, Notebooks - Staff Picks - WOLFRAM COMMUNITY](https://wolfr.am/coronavirus) [Open in Wolfram Cloud ↗](https://www.wolframcloud.com/obj/75ec2a4b-b7bd-4c7f-9a14-6e543085fc0e) ---
**Author:** ![rnachbar](https://yyz1.discourse-cdn.com/wolfram/user_avatar/community.wolfram.com/rnachbar/32/10766_2.png) [@rnachbar](https://community.wolfram.com/u/rnachbar)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2020, 9:25pm UTC](https://community.wolfram.com/t/nb-basic-experiments-workflow-for-simple-epidemiological-models/15482/2 "2020-03-10T21:25:11Z")
Very nice! Our models are very similar, right down to some of the assumptions! I see that your fits suffer from the same problems as mine: a long exponential tail on the confirmed cases (aka, infected) and the recovered rises too slowly. Bob ---
**Author:** ![antononcube](https://yyz1.discourse-cdn.com/wolfram/user_avatar/community.wolfram.com/antononcube/32/7348_2.png) [@antononcube](https://community.wolfram.com/u/antononcube)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2020, 6:37pm UTC](https://community.wolfram.com/t/nb-basic-experiments-workflow-for-simple-epidemiological-models/15482/3 "2020-03-11T18:37:25Z")
Thank you for your comment, Bob! The purpose of that notebook is to show the general workflow with a simple model. There are multiple ways to make the SEI2R model more comprehensive. The directions I have in mind can be found in the repository [Coronavirus propagation dynamics](https://github.com/antononcube/SystemModeling/tree/master/Projects/Coronavirus-propagation-dynamics). ---
**Author:** ![rnachbar](https://yyz1.discourse-cdn.com/wolfram/user_avatar/community.wolfram.com/rnachbar/32/10766_2.png) [@rnachbar](https://community.wolfram.com/u/rnachbar)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2020, 6:42pm UTC](https://community.wolfram.com/t/nb-basic-experiments-workflow-for-simple-epidemiological-models/15482/4 "2020-03-11T18:42:34Z")
My work is posted now: [[Notebook] Epidemiological Models for Influenza and COVID-19](https://community.wolfram.com/groups/-/m/t/1896178?p_p_auth=hNiqd3FV) I’ll get a a look at your repo later today. ---
**Author:** ![danl](https://yyz1.discourse-cdn.com/wolfram/user_avatar/community.wolfram.com/danl/32/41267_2.png) [@danl](https://community.wolfram.com/u/danl)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2020, 10:03pm UTC](https://community.wolfram.com/t/nb-basic-experiments-workflow-for-simple-epidemiological-models/15482/5 "2020-03-11T22:03:26Z")
One possible issue is from an oversimplification. In actuality the beta parameters are going to be functions of time and space. To some extent quarantining can account for this, at least the temporal aspect, if you can model it by some plausible kinetics. Another issue is in the data itself. There are believed to be many mild cases. For these, recovery=infected (up to a time lag) and if both go unreported, this will have the effect of making recovery seem slower than it actually is. That stated, both posts are really nice. ---
**Author:** ![wolframcommunity](https://yyz1.discourse-cdn.com/wolfram/user_avatar/community.wolfram.com/wolframcommunity/32/8335_2.png) [@wolframcommunity](https://community.wolfram.com/u/wolframcommunity)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2020, 9:37pm UTC](https://community.wolfram.com/t/nb-basic-experiments-workflow-for-simple-epidemiological-models/15482/6 "2020-03-12T21:37:33Z")
![news-congrads-kkluyshnik-02-04-19.jpg](https://global.discourse-cdn.com/wolfram/original/3X/6/a/6a310c2d0904616faf4e6e148260c9f29ab9f4eb.jpeg) – you have earned _ **Featured Contributor Badge** _ ![2015-11-02_10-07-11.png](https://global.discourse-cdn.com/wolfram/original/3X/5/0/50e59c9ead62f729e7130d3ea1482555a75602b6.png) Your exceptional post has been selected for our editorial column _ **Staff Picks** _ [http://wolfr.am/StaffPicks](http://wolfr.am/StaffPicks) and [Your Profile](http://community.wolfram.com/web/antononcube) is now distinguished by a _ **Featured Contributor Badge** _ and is displayed on the [Featured Contributor Board](https://community.wolfram.com/people). Thank you, keep it coming, and consider contributing to the [The Notebook Archive](http://notebookarchive.org)! ---
**Author:** ![rnachbar](https://yyz1.discourse-cdn.com/wolfram/user_avatar/community.wolfram.com/rnachbar/32/10766_2.png) [@rnachbar](https://community.wolfram.com/u/rnachbar)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2020, 9:38pm UTC](https://community.wolfram.com/t/nb-basic-experiments-workflow-for-simple-epidemiological-models/15482/7 "2020-03-12T21:38:49Z")
Nice live-stream today! ---
**Author:** ![antononcube](https://yyz1.discourse-cdn.com/wolfram/user_avatar/community.wolfram.com/antononcube/32/7348_2.png) [@antononcube](https://community.wolfram.com/u/antononcube)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2020, 1:02am UTC](https://community.wolfram.com/t/nb-basic-experiments-workflow-for-simple-epidemiological-models/15482/8 "2020-03-13T01:02:18Z")
Thanks, Dan! Probably refined models can be made that have more population compartments and have time-dependent rates that reflect the medical observations and enacted policies. ---
**Author:** ![ricknatt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c4cdca/32.png) [@ricknatt](https://community.wolfram.com/u/ricknatt)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2020, 4:35pm UTC](https://community.wolfram.com/t/nb-basic-experiments-workflow-for-simple-epidemiological-models/15482/9 "2020-03-28T16:35:30Z")
Many thanks for the effort you put into this. I also much enjoy your website and learn a lot from it. Regards, Robert ---
**Author:** ![antononcube](https://yyz1.discourse-cdn.com/wolfram/user_avatar/community.wolfram.com/antononcube/32/7348_2.png) [@antononcube](https://community.wolfram.com/u/antononcube)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2020, 6:03pm UTC](https://community.wolfram.com/t/nb-basic-experiments-workflow-for-simple-epidemiological-models/15482/10 "2020-03-28T18:03:51Z")
The notebook here is also (without output) placed in GitHub: [SystemModeling/Projects/Coronavirus-propagation-dynamics/WL-notebooks/Basic-experiments-workflow-for-simple-epidemiological-models.nb at master · antononcube/SystemModeling · GitHub](https://github.com/antononcube/SystemModeling/blob/master/Projects/Coronavirus-propagation-dynamics/WL-notebooks/Basic-experiments-workflow-for-simple-epidemiological-models.nb) . ---
**Author:** ![antononcube](https://yyz1.discourse-cdn.com/wolfram/user_avatar/community.wolfram.com/antononcube/32/7348_2.png) [@antononcube](https://community.wolfram.com/u/antononcube)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2020, 6:05pm UTC](https://community.wolfram.com/t/nb-basic-experiments-workflow-for-simple-epidemiological-models/15482/11 "2020-03-28T18:05:50Z")
Thank your kind words! I put a fix into the notebook – I forgot to run it with the most recent package updates.