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Pandemia of COVID-19 data for Italy. We present the data plot of the total and new daily infections by COVID-19 virus in Italy day by day starting from the beginning of contagion on 21 February 2020. We then present the non linear least square fit of the total infections data with a logistic curve (from the Verhulst model) and the fit of the new daily infections data with the derivative of the logistic curve. One can interactively choose the different graph, the number of days in the data points used for the fit, and the maximum day in the graph. The demonstration automatically reads the new data published by the italian "Protezione Civile" day by day. The data are taken from the following Wikipedia site:

2020 coronavirus pandemic in italy

verhulst growth model

In order to open and run the attached CDF demonstration file it is necessary to download and install the Wolfram CDF Player at this link.

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Graph Total Total&New Fit Total Fit New # Days 36 Max Day 60 logistic model(t) = a 1+n exp(-t/τ) Estimate Standard Error t-Statistic P-Value a 120399. 2273.06 52.9679 1.66363× -33 10 n 402.156 20.2071 19.9017 5.94778× -20 10 τ 5.2215 0.074392 70.1889 1.66549× -37 10

Attachments:

COVID-19-Italy-nlmf.cdf