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[WIS22] Cryptocurrency price prediction with recurrent neural networks

Posted 15 days ago
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I think the 109 values you call "tests" are usually called the validation set, but this is a matter of nomenclature.

In any case, I am surprised this can work at all. I've always thought market prices are more or less random walks. In fact, I'm skeptical about the very possibility to predict them from a theoretical point of view, based on the following reasoning.

What would happen if such models turned out to be really efficient at predicting the price and if such model was made public? Wouldn't everyone eventually use it, making the prediction self-fulfilling?

In fact, there could be a positive feedback happening. The model would predict prices fluctuations that would be amplified by speculators. In the end the model itself would direct the market and the price would become a loose degree of freedom.

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