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Current CO2 emission will increase CO2 concentration cubically

Posted 7 months ago

POSTED BY: Sangdon Lee
6 Replies

IMHO, you’re all quite close to the truth. Your polynomial is the Taylor expansion of Exp[(t-t0)/tau], as known since 1985 [1]. Following the current knowledge, the exponential increase of xCO2 is a “positive” feedback in the earth system. Initially, the perturbation was the anthropogenic CO2 emission while nowadays it is a mixture of emissions, other destructive anthropogenic actions and system inherent feedbacks. The system may have already left the basin of attraction of the Holocene. It may move towards another attractor, the hothouse earth [2] or the runaway greenhouse ([3] “ticket to Venus”) state.

  1. Bacastow, Keeling (sen.) and Whorf (1985):
  2. Steffen (2018):
  3. Kasting (1988):
POSTED BY: Jens Wendelstorf
Posted 6 months ago

Thanks for your valuable information. I was not aware of these publications. I have posted another update to demonstrate that the CO2 sink has been increasing.

POSTED BY: Sangdon Lee

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POSTED BY: Moderation Team

POSTED BY: Henrik Schachner

Just for the sake of correctness:

The used Keeling data are to be understood as results of measurements done in the middle of the respective month - so, for working with the precise data one has to replace the second line of my code by:

dataKeeling = TimeSeries[{DateObject[{#1, #2, 15}], #3} & @@@ dataRaw[[62 ;; -9, {1, 2, 9}]]];

This means a shift in the data of 15 days. Sorry for this flaw!

POSTED BY: Henrik Schachner
Posted 6 months ago

Hi Henrik, Thanks for your great comment.

This posting was intended to show that if CO2 emissions increase 'linearly,' then the CO2 concentration will increase 'quadratically,' contrary to a common misunderstanding that the CO2 concentration will also increase 'linearly.' The CO2 concentration will increase much faster than we think. Your analysis confirms that CO2 emission has been increased linearly and therefore CO2 concentration has been increasing quadratically.

The correct title should be "Linear increase in CO2 emissions will result in a quadratic increase in CO2 concentration.

This posting did not consider the outflow (i.e., CO2 sink or absorption). I have posted another update to demonstrate that the CO2 sink has been increasing.

POSTED BY: Sangdon Lee
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