Ladies and Gentlemen at Wolfram Research (Steve and Eric) My virus free pdf attachment, a Mathematica Notebook modeling the COVID19 epidemic in the state of Illinois. How does it work? First, scroll down to page 10. Do you see the chart reading Time (days) on the X axis and Velocity on the Y axis? The graph (bell shaped red line) gives the change in the velocity of the epidemic over time. Now turn your gaze to the line just below the chart. Do you see the words ‘Find Maximum’? The phrase {t > 26.3037} indicates the epidemic made it half way to the maximum number of new cases, new infections on day 26 in the state of Illinois (5 April 2020). Second, scroll back up to page 6. Study the chart with the heading at the top reading: Show[KinetE1LMdl,dtplt1a]. The red dots represents total cases diagnosed from one day to the next. The green smooth line gives my derivation of the Logistic Equation fit to the data points and extending on out to 60 days. Do you see the words underneath the chart reading: ‘Find Maximum’ with the results: {23612. , {t > 1110.}}? Those numbers mean. If the Logistic Model holds true and correct for the near future there will be 23,612 (twenty three thousand six hundred and twelve) cases in the state of Illinois some 1110 (one thousand one hundred and ten) days after the first day, 10 March 2020. (Actually, it’s a lot worse than that. There will probably be 23,000 or so cases by day 60 of the epidemic). How to use this model in practical application? I’m planning on adding fresh new numbers to the second data point set dtpts1b as they appear on the Illinois Department of Public Health web page. http://www.dph.illinois.gov/topicsservices/diseasesandconditions/diseasesazlist/coronavirus If the graph of the second data point set (dtpts1b) falls down and away from the graph of the first set (dtpts1a) over time we can assume the crisis will be coming to an end in the foreseeable future. If the graph of the second data point set (dtpts1b) either holds to the curve or climbs above the curve, we are in deep trouble. Please ladies and gentlemen, please forward this email and notebook to as many Mathematica smart epidemiologists and mathematicians as you have on your email list. Cordially and with best wishes, Alan White, Hickory Hills Illinois (708) 325 – 8979
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