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A simple intraday volatility measure

Posted 3 years ago

POSTED BY: Robert Rimmer
9 Replies
Posted 3 years ago

Michael, the reason I was at the Extreme Value Analysis conference where I met Tom Mikosch was to present a lognormally scaled stable distribution, The mathematics of the combination is that the stable tail eventually shows up and dominates as the distribution tails get longer. So if you have enough data, you should eventually be able to find a power tail in the stable domain of attraction. I have attached part of a notebook that was written in version 7; none of the code will work, It was written before Mathematica had stable distributions and used a MathLink to a program by John Nolan. The notebook with the whole presentation was too big to upload so I cut to the section with the distribution, but you can see the pictures and the math is all there.

You probably have the connections to get data from some place like WRDS and put some millisecond data for something like the SPY ETF in the Wolfram Data Repository. I would love to play with accurate data say from 2020 to present. I am exploring some data I have been scraping from the NASDAQ website which appears to be tick by tick data probably traded on their system; the heaviest tail I can find is from 2.6 to 3.1..

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POSTED BY: Robert Rimmer
POSTED BY: Michael Kelly
Posted 3 years ago

That's neat, and it could have been published in newspapers with daily high and low stock prices since the 1920s, if anybody had thought of it.

POSTED BY: Robert Rimmer

Hi Robert

An even simpler volatility measure would be:

2*(high-low)/(high+low)

Just in case that anybody would be afraid of Log[ ] ;-) .

POSTED BY: Robert Nowak
Posted 3 years ago

Thanks Robert for your insightful reply. I agree that the proof given in Mikosch's paper is very involved and has a nested aspect to it in which each result depends upon another subresult until the required conclusion is reached. My intuitive feel of the result is that volatility is a process that must satisfy the requirement of representing the variability of market processes, which can be represented by stable distributions, hence it must have a max Stable or extreme value distribution like Frechet. It leaves hope that intraday distributions might be expressed in terms of a generalized Stable Distribution where the stability parameter has a wider range of values than [0,2].

POSTED BY: Michael Kelly
Posted 3 years ago
POSTED BY: Robert Rimmer

A very interesting result! The original paper is even more general in that it considers instances where the jump sizes occur in a separable Banach space. It would be interesting to see if the option valuations under this version of stochastic volatility remain consistent according to the book on this topic by Alan Lewis, who also wrote Mathematica code for his book. I guess it depends upon the extent to which truncated Lognormal distributions behave like heavy tailed random walk distributions in the limit.

POSTED BY: Michael Kelly
POSTED BY: EDITORIAL BOARD
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