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Help needed --- Every Japanese to be called SATO by 2531"

POSTED BY: Marco Barsotti
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Very cool answer! I can add nothing more.

I ran the code, slightly modified such that the upper limit 30 of $n$ is replaced by 1000. I put some sample outputs here. The last one is prophesied future of Japan !? enter image description here enter image description here enter image description here
POSTED BY: Akishi Kato
POSTED BY: Gianluca Gorni

hello!

thank you for your kind answer. I suspected that too.

A running wolfram language code to simulate the evolution would be great in fact.

thanks again
POSTED BY: Marco Barsotti

Hi. I am Japanese and my surname is Kato, which is ranked as 10th popular surname.

Perhaps I could help in coding, but the model you cited (geometric series, or, compound interest calculation) is too simplistic to be real. If most people had surname Sato, the percentage of Sato might still increase, but the rate of growth would inevitably slow down. The model totally ignores this fact and percentage will go up over 100%!

Mathematically speaking, such hegemony / supremacy / dominance phenomena are best described by Logistic differential equations. This equation correctly incorporate such slowing-down effect due to saturation.

I don't know why the author of the paper used such oversimplified model. My guess is that his real intention is not in the academic correctness, but to spark a debate on selective separate surnames for married couples, which is a hot political issues in Japan.
POSTED BY: Akishi Kato
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