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[WSG67] Daily Study Group: Decision Process Theory

Posted 1 month ago

Join me and a group of fellow learners on why and how our decisions change over time. We will start with an introduction to classical game theory and use a Wolfram Language toolkit to compute the optimal behavior of games. This is extended to dynamic games where optimal behaviors are time dependent. We apply the concepts of strategic thinking to classic examples of games, such as the prisoners dilemma. Our topics for the study group include zero-sum games, non-zero-sum-games, games with perfect information and games with imperfect information. The goal of the study group is to learn how to make optimal choices, especially when faced with recurrent decision processes.

No prior knowledge of game theory is assumed. A basic working knowledge of the Wolfram Language is recommended.

Please feel free to use this thread to collaborate and share ideas, materials and links to other resources with fellow learners. The study group will be held

May 19- May 30

11am-12pm CT (4-5 pm GMT)

REGISTER HERE

POSTED BY: Gerald Thomas
11 Replies

I don't know what the problem was where I was getting different results when I ran the code myself, but I suspect there was some code before it that I didn't run that was relevant, because when I went back and tried it again, I am getting the same results.

POSTED BY: Kari Grafton

Yes, that happens to me when i forget to run some of the preliminary code.

POSTED BY: Gerald Thomas
Posted 12 days ago

Is it fair to say that the solutions found in field theory of games are numerical solutions to a closed-form expression for iterative play of classical game theory? At least, as shown through lesson 8?

POSTED BY: Neil Tice

If I understand your question, the answer is yes. The Field Theory of Games is dealing with iterative games, those played again and again.

POSTED BY: Gerald Thomas
Posted 13 days ago

Yes, my code was meant to be an example of my reverse polish intuition from HP-45 days. Is this the general concept with v being the more valuable (3/4 for Blue-Major in your case)?

TableForm[{{1, 1 - v}, {v, 1}}, 
 TableHeadings -> {{Subscript[m, B], Subscript[M, B]}, {Subscript[m, 
    R], Subscript[M, R]}}]

Given a quadratic determinant, that suggests a quadrant of the unit circle as trade-off. Clearly, I am looking for an idiot’s guide to payoff matrices and an explanation of why the WL MatrixGamePayoff tableau looks so different.

POSTED BY: David Barnes

You have the general concept. Note your matrix has only one variable, and in general there are four variables.

POSTED BY: Gerald Thomas
Posted 13 days ago

Last century, before you provided such nifty code, I would have looked at attackDefense this way,

Block[{b, r, p, s}, b = {{4, 1}, {3, 4}}; r = -Transpose@b;
 p[x_] := {x[[1, 2]]/Det[x], x[[2, 1]]/Det[x]};
 {s = p[#] & /@ {b, r}, Norm /@ Normalize /@ s} // Column
 ]

But I admit that I never understood the input. For example, what does the 3 mean? Is that blue’s value for thing 1 and Red’s value for thing 2? I got your books but I remain confused about the payoff versus the view, etc.

POSTED BY: David Barnes

I see what you are doing but it doesn't lead to the optimal game solution. Your question about what does "3" mean is relevant. In this example, taken from Rand corporation in the 50's, one installation is three times more valuable than the other. Suppose the minor installation has a value 1. If both survive, blue gets a value 4. If blue defends the major installation and red attacks the minor, blue gets 3. If blue defends the minor installation and red attacks the major, blue gets 1. Hence the values for the payoff matrix with rows labeled "minor" and "major" defense. And columns labeled "minor" and "major" attack.

POSTED BY: Gerald Thomas

I am not familiar with it, but thank you for the link. It appears related to the work people do in Systems Dynamics, though from the web site the underlying mathematics is not clear. That it draws from science is definitely a connection.

POSTED BY: Gerald Thomas

Thank you for the reply.

The way I saw it first was through a book called Factory Physics by Wallace J. Hopp, Ph.D. Mark L. Spearman, PhD, https://factoryphysics.com/books/factory-physics-3rd-edition/. Mark Spearman founded the Ops Science Institute to help push this out into the manufacturing world. It seems to me that there must be a connection. There are many ways to approach what takes place in making a decision, Including TRIZ (or SIT), https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Systematicinventivethinking.

POSTED BY: Deuard Worthen

How does this relate to Operation Science: https://opscience.org/

POSTED BY: Deuard Worthen
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