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Multivariate time series models

Posted 10 years ago

Time series analysis does not stop on individual series cases and naturally extends into multivariate specification. When individual series in the dataset are dependent, multivariate time series analysis gets much more desirable since it captures the critical dependency structure which is invisible in univariate specification. We demonstrate the ease of model extension into higher dimension and present more advanced treatment of time series models when parameters and input get stochastic.

Bivariate TS simulation

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POSTED BY: Igor Hlivka
3 Replies

Ruben the best way to proceed is to create a vector-valued ARIMA process with two components. Then based on this, you can build graphs as follows (replace "rFmode1" with the name of the process you defime on your own:

nssvmean = TimeSeriesThread[Mean, rFmode1["PathComponent", 1]];
spsvmean = TimeSeriesThread[Mean, rFmode1["PathComponent", 2]];
nsmup = TimeSeriesThread[Quantile[#, 0.95] &, rFmode1["PathComponent", 1]];
nsmdn = TimeSeriesThread[Quantile[#, 0.05] &, rFmode1["PathComponent", 1]];
spmup = TimeSeriesThread[Quantile[#, 0.95] &, rFmode1["PathComponent", 2]];
spmdn = TimeSeriesThread[Quantile[#, 0.05] &, rFmode1["PathComponent", 2]];

{DateListPlot[{indices["PathComponent", 1], 
   TimeSeries[nssvmean["Values"], {{2014, 11, 28}, Automatic}], 
   TimeSeries[nsmup["Values"], {{2014, 11, 28}, Automatic}], 
   TimeSeries[nsmdn["Values"], {{2014, 11, 28}, Automatic}]}, 
  Filling -> {3 -> {4}},
  PlotLabel -> "Nasdaq series with 3M projections bands"], 
 DateListPlot[{indices["PathComponent", 2], 
   TimeSeries[spsvmean["Values"], {{2014, 11, 28}, Automatic}], 
   TimeSeries[spmup["Values"], {{2014, 11, 28}, Automatic}], 
   TimeSeries[spmdn["Values"], {{2014, 11, 28}, Automatic}]}, 
  Filling -> {3 -> {4}},
  PlotLabel -> "S&P series with 3M projections bands"]}
DateListPlot[{indices["PathComponent", 2], 
  TimeSeries[spsvmean["Values"], {{2014, 11, 28}, Automatic}], 
  TimeSeries[spmup["Values"], {{2014, 11, 28}, Automatic}], 
  TimeSeries[spmdn["Values"], {{2014, 11, 28}, Automatic}]}, 
 Filling -> {3 -> {4}},
 PlotLabel -> "S&P series with 3M projections bands"]

{ListPlot[TimeSeriesThread[First[#] - Last[#] &, {nssvmean, nsmean}], 
  PlotStyle -> Blue, PlotLabel -> "Stoch CoVar Nasdaq mean difference"], 
 ListPlot[TimeSeriesThread[First[#] - Last[#] &, {spsvmean, spmean}], 
  PlotStyle -> Magenta, PlotLabel -> "Sotch CoVar S&P mean difference"]}

spath = RandomFunction[estPmod2, {1, 90}];
sts = TimeSeries[spath, ResamplingMethod -> Automatic];

sfunc = sts["PathFunction"];
gfunc[t_] := Join[{t}, sfunc[t]];

ParametricPlot3D[gfunc[t], {t, 1, 90}, 
 ColorFunction -> 
  Function[{t, x, y}, (ColorData["TemperatureMap"][t])], 
 PlotStyle -> Thickness[0.012], PlotTheme -> "Marketing", 
 BoxRatios -> 1, AxesLabel -> {t, "Nasdaq", "S&P"}]
POSTED BY: Igor Hlivka

Dear Igor, thanks a lot for the code. I understand how it works now.

Hi Igor, I'm going through your file trying to replicate the results in Mathematica but I'm having difficulties recreating all the graphs except for the first 3. Would it be possible to know the Mathematica code to generate the rest of the graphs? Many thanks in advance, Ruben

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