How do I calculate b from real data?
Here are the cases the begin of infecteds in São Paulo Brazilian State
data = {1,1,1,2,2,2,2,3,6,10,13,16,19,30,42,56,65,136,152,164,240,286,396,459,631,745,810};
Clear[a, k];
NonlinearModelFit[data, a Exp[k t], {a, k}, t]["BestFitParameters"]
{a -> 2.35641, k -> 0.219352}
It's somehow related to k?