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The attached notebook takes fatality resource data and creates a curve fit based on the data and the fact that the expected fatalities will reach constant in the large time limit.
When assuming that the reproduction rate R is not a constant, that we are still in the beginning of the pandemic (i.e. far away from herd immunity), then R(t) can be estimated.
The model shows that social distancing has worked lowering R from 3 to about 1. It also shows that the Expected number of fatalities (USA) by the end of June will be over 200,000. Significantly higher than the current IHME models predict.
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I posted this because I think the IHME Model is way off and overly optimistic. They constantly have to upward revise the fatalities.
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