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COVID19: Italian SIRD estimates and prediction

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In this document I apply the standard SIRD model , using Italian COVID19 data. Up to date, May 23, there are 89 daily observations, starting from February 24. The model is adjusted and does not cover all possible people to be infected, but only those who been tested and were found positive until May 23. In Italy more than 3.3 million tests were curried so far and the accumulated number of infected people is 228,658 (almost 7%). The infected/tested ratio over the recent days is very low, at most 1% (about 650 new infected per day), compared to more than 30% two months ago. Today is the 89th day and I will solve the problem to predict the key variables until the middle of June (t = 115). Assuming the current number of new infected is around 600 per day, the susceptible population is therefore set equal to about 245,000 over the period under investigation.

After I have retrieved the data, I use 79 out of 89 observations to estimate the key SIRD parameters. Thereafter, using these estimates I solve the system of ODE equations and plot their paths together with the current observations.

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POSTED BY: Moderation Team

This post has been listed in the main resource-hub COVID-19 thread: in the section Computational Publications. Please feel free to add your own comment on that discussion pointing to this post ( ) so many more interested readers will become aware of your excellent work. Thank you for your contribution!

POSTED BY: Moderation Team

Thanks very much! I have a new document on Sweden, a country that follows its own "open" strategy and so far has paid a huge price! Please see ti here:

Thanks, @Christos Papahristodoulou, you can just point to your published post via URL, as we corrected your comment. The full post should be posted stand-alone in a single placce, that is pointed to via a hyperlink.

POSTED BY: Moderation Team
Posted 4 years ago

Very useful and clear.

POSTED BY: Giovanni Romeo

Molto grazia Giovanni! It looka much better today than what my model estimates predicted! Forza!

Posted 4 years ago

Sure, you need to update these models all the times...I applied a similar technique, not detailed as yours. It's just the basic SIR (Kermack, McKendrick) model without the Deaths into account.

POSTED BY: Giovanni Romeo
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