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COVID19: The performance of the Swedish strategy

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Christos Papahristodoulou May 29, 2020

The three Nordic countries together, Denmark, Norway and Finland had in May 28, almost 200 deaths per million inhabitants from the COVID-19. Sweden, with approximately 60% of the population of the other three countries, had 419 deaths per million. Obviously the COVID-19 pandemic hit Sweden much harder. Today it was announced that the other three Nordic countries will enforce quarantine to travellers from Sweden during the summer. In addition, two Mediterranean countries, Greece and Cyprus, just announced that they do not allow tourists from Sweden this summer.

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Hi everyone, I have now updated the Swedish and European Infection and mortality estimate and done a few more estimates. Things are still bad in Sweden... I will continue with updates at least once per month and hope the Swedish COVID-19 performance will improve!

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I found these graphs to be quite interesting, and thought that others reading Christos' post might find it too. They show mortality rates (non-Covid specific) in several European countries (and regions) over time and by age groups. No analysis included, just data, but quite interesting.

POSTED BY: Jan Brugard

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This post has been listed in the main resource-hub COVID-19 thread: https://wolfr.am/coronavirus in the section Computational Publications. Please feel free to add your own comment on that discussion pointing to this post ( https://community.wolfram.com/groups/-/m/t/1990972 ) so many more interested readers will become aware of your excellent work. Thank you for your contribution!

POSTED BY: EDITORIAL BOARD

It will be interesting to see results of large-scale antibody tests. Sweden might actually be well ahead of the curve, going forward.

POSTED BY: Daniel Lichtblau

Thanks Daniel! I hope I am wrong, but things are not very well in Sweden. One should expect from a welfare state with so high taxes a better performance.

Sweden opted to take on more cases, and this may have lead to a greater percentage of infections in the most vulnerable populations, hence perhaps a high mortality. It is not clear (to me) that the Swedish health care system failed to hold up, although certainly if vulnerable populations were hard-hit that would indicate some policy failures.

It is also not entirely clear that the mortality is as high as claimed, as we do not really know what percentage of the Swedish population has been infected. I expect this will clarify in the next several weeks, as more antibody testing is performed.

As to whether the greater exposure leads to an improved herd immunity effect (as compared to other countries), we likely will not know until the end of 2020 (unless we learn sooner than that that immunity simply does not last very long, but this seems unlikely based on evidence thus far). Similarly, we will not have a clear indication of overall relative mortalities before that time.

There is the obvious counter-balance that Sweden's economy has almost certainly taken less of a hit than the economies of most other countries. But so far as the virus impact goes, I really would not draw any hard conclusions until more data is in. It might turn out to be a disasterous strategy, or it might turn out well, or it might be somewhere in between, as is often the case, when all options carry serious drawbacks.

POSTED BY: Daniel Lichtblau
POSTED BY: Jan Brugard
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