Group Abstract Group Abstract

Message Boards Message Boards

COVID19: The performance of the Swedish strategy

Attachments:
9 Replies

Hi everyone, I have now updated the Swedish and European Infection and mortality estimate and done a few more estimates. Things are still bad in Sweden... I will continue with updates at least once per month and hope the Swedish COVID-19 performance will improve!

Attachments:

I found these graphs to be quite interesting, and thought that others reading Christos' post might find it too. They show mortality rates (non-Covid specific) in several European countries (and regions) over time and by age groups. No analysis included, just data, but quite interesting.

POSTED BY: Jan Brugard
POSTED BY: Jan Brugard

Your post has been selected for our editorial column Staff Picks http://wolfr.am/StaffPicks and Your Profile is now distinguished by a Featured Contributor Badge and is displayed on the Featured Contributor Board. Thank you!

This post has been listed in the main resource-hub COVID-19 thread: https://wolfr.am/coronavirus in the section Computational Publications. Please feel free to add your own comment on that discussion pointing to this post ( https://community.wolfram.com/groups/-/m/t/1990972 ) so many more interested readers will become aware of your excellent work. Thank you for your contribution!

POSTED BY: EDITORIAL BOARD

Sweden opted to take on more cases, and this may have lead to a greater percentage of infections in the most vulnerable populations, hence perhaps a high mortality. It is not clear (to me) that the Swedish health care system failed to hold up, although certainly if vulnerable populations were hard-hit that would indicate some policy failures.

It is also not entirely clear that the mortality is as high as claimed, as we do not really know what percentage of the Swedish population has been infected. I expect this will clarify in the next several weeks, as more antibody testing is performed.

As to whether the greater exposure leads to an improved herd immunity effect (as compared to other countries), we likely will not know until the end of 2020 (unless we learn sooner than that that immunity simply does not last very long, but this seems unlikely based on evidence thus far). Similarly, we will not have a clear indication of overall relative mortalities before that time.

There is the obvious counter-balance that Sweden's economy has almost certainly taken less of a hit than the economies of most other countries. But so far as the virus impact goes, I really would not draw any hard conclusions until more data is in. It might turn out to be a disasterous strategy, or it might turn out well, or it might be somewhere in between, as is often the case, when all options carry serious drawbacks.

POSTED BY: Daniel Lichtblau
POSTED BY: Daniel Lichtblau
Reply to this discussion
Community posts can be styled and formatted using the Markdown syntax.
Reply Preview
Attachments
Remove
or Discard