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US unemployment prediction from job-seeking websites traffic

POSTED BY: Iman Nazari
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Thank you Vitaliy. It seems much more interesting now. :-)

I had very limited values. I will consider it in the next versions that I use weekly stats and probably more traffic data.
POSTED BY: Iman Nazari

Hi Sam. It's good. But data on wolfram database is outdated. (the latest stat is for 4-5 months ago)

But I'll appreciate it if you can help me about gathering websites traffic. I can do it only for the past year, but not more!
POSTED BY: Iman Nazari

Hi Kelly, Thank you about the weekly stats, that will help me a lot.

Of course I am interested in discussing them. I'm looking forward to hear your advice. I'll consider any leading (or less lagging) indicator you may suggest.
POSTED BY: Iman Nazari

Nice idea. I've added a graph to your post, - the more visualizations the better. I think you could have split your data on training set and test set. It would be interesting to see how well it performs on a few know values, not just one.

POSTED BY: Vitaliy Kaurov

enter image description here - another post of yours has been selected for the Staff Picks group, congratulations !

We are happy to see you at the top of the "Featured Contributor" board. Thank you for your wonderful contributions, and please keep them coming!
POSTED BY: EDITORIAL BOARD

You can get the data as

dataUSA = Entity["Country", "UnitedStates"][
   EntityProperty["Country", "CivilianUnemploymentRate", 
       {"Date" -> Interval[{DateObject[{1900}], Today}]}]];

DateListPlot[data, ImageSize -> Full, AspectRatio -> 1/4, PlotTheme -> "Detailed"]

enter image description here
POSTED BY: Sam Carrettie
Kelly O
Kelly O
Posted 9 years ago

Hi, Thank you for sharing this. It's a really cool and insightful approach. Wish I could help with advice about coding but I'm really just struggling to learn the most basic things in this program, having been working primarily with excel it is very challenging.

As far as the 'everything else', IMHO, If you want to have a pretty good idea what the NFP will be next month try some analysis on the weekly initial and continuing claims numbers; Please share any awesome analysis you come up with. I just use subtraction :-)

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CCSA

NFP moves the market due to 'smart money' entering and exiting strategic positions with the liquidity provided by 'dumb money' trading on that one 'magic' number that was actually totally predictable. Also,employment is a lagging indicator in itself, job searches would lag that, and crime as a last alternative would be say, an extremely lagging indicator.

To be clear NFP is an important indicator, but it is a lagging indicator. Anyway, sorry for the rant, hope it is at least a little thought provoking. If you'd ever like to discuss or collaborate on anything market related, like leading indicators, please let me know.

Kind regards, K.
POSTED BY: Kelly O

Oh. My bad! In the last line, there is a function named "f", it had to be visitShow. :|

You can change it or download the new version of the notebook ;)

The output is only a number (7853 in this case). but in other neural networks can be a class or number (or sth that I don't know)

Of course we can add new variables to it. (even if it is not like others. for example number of crimes committed!)

I'm not expert in neural networks also. I would be glad if anyone can suggest a suitable network to train.
POSTED BY: Iman Nazari

When I evaluate this notebook, I get this error:

"PredictorFunction::Incompatible variable type (NumericalVector) and variable value"

What is the output supposed to look like? I'm interested in neural networks, but I don't know much about them. Could we add additional variables?
POSTED BY: Tim Mayes
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