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Statistic help - 90% confidence level, two sided which would you reject Ho?

Posted 5 years ago

Hi,

Why is is correct to say to reject the null for a p value of 0.09? I thought for a 90% two sided it would mean 5% on one side and 5% on the other making 0.09 greater than 0.05. I know this is probably simply for you all but for me not. Only if its 10% on each side then it should be 80% confidence level?

POSTED BY: Michael Macedo
9 Replies

It's perfect now. Thanks a lot Seth!

see if this works better

Attachments:
POSTED BY: Seth Chandler

Thanks for the answer. I think that would be a great idea. By the way, would it be possible to have access to this notebook? Unfortunately, the attached version is not displaying properly.

Thanks for the interest in the book. But it's more about working with data than statistics per se. I wrote this notebook as part of a class called Analytic Methods for Lawyers; maybe one day I will convert a bunch of notebooks into another book. But not today!

POSTED BY: Seth Chandler

There is no right answer about what p-value should count. The 0.05 threshold represents a somewhat arbitrary balancing of the cost of false positives (finding that the data under consideration was not generated by the null hypothesis even though in fact it was) against the cost of false negatives (finding insufficient evidence to reject the null hypothesis even though that hypothesis is in fact false).

I just wrote a draft notebook on P-values that might possibly be of use to you in conceptualizing this issue and the difference between one-sided and two-sided P-values in particular. You can find it here:

https://community.wolfram.com/groups/-/m/t/1824481

POSTED BY: Seth Chandler

Seth, very nice work and I agree completely! However, Mathematica does test the null hypothesis, provided that the data is distributed according to the Normal Distribution. We know that data based on samples are problematic and various kinds of errors are possible. Many researchers in social sciences do not examine their data carefully and simply assume that some kind of normality is the rule...and often they make mistakes. Personally, I often ask Mathematica to "FindDistribution", before I run statistics and if it rejects it I am more careful.

Still, normality might not be required to run some kind of regressions. But it is always a good idea to not rely on simple regressions only, but try with different alternatives, like Quantile or Kernel estimates.

Hi Seth, Great post! Will the contents of this notebook be part of your forthcoming book?

Dear Seth, due to outstanding quality of your comment we moved it to Staff Pick column as a stand-alone contribution. Comments were slightly edited accordingly. You can find it here:

https://community.wolfram.com/groups/-/m/t/1824481

POSTED BY: EDITORIAL BOARD

Hi, Check in Library (go to Help and write for instance Significance level) how to run tests and conclude if the hypothesis is rejected or not. All that follows is from that:

BlockRandom[SeedRandom[1];
  data = RandomVariate[StudentTDistribution[5], 100]];

DistributionFitTest[data, 
 NormalDistribution[\[Mu], \[Sigma]], "ShortTestConclusion", 
 SignificanceLevel -> 0.1]

Out[2]= "Reject"

In[3]:= DistributionFitTest[data, 
 NormalDistribution[\[Mu], \[Sigma]], "ShortTestConclusion", 
 SignificanceLevel -> 0.05]

Out[3]= "Do not reject"

By default, 0.05 is used:

In[4]:= DistributionFitTest[data, NormalDistribution[\[Mu], \[Sigma]], 
  "TestConclusion", SignificanceLevel -> Automatic] // TraditionalForm

Out[4]//TraditionalForm= The null hypothesis that the data is distributed according to the NormalDistribution[\[Mu],\[Sigma]] is not rejected at the 5. percent level based on the Cramér-von Mises test.
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