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Modeling wind speed distributions with machine learning

Posted 10 years ago

What is distribution of wind speed magnitudes at a given geographic location? You could approach this manually like the authors of this paper:

Mixture probability distribution functions to model wind speed distributions

where main conclusion was:

Results show that mixture probability functions are better alternatives to conventional Weibull, two-component mixture Weibull, gamma, and lognormal PDFs to describe wind speed characteristics.

Or you can use Machine Learning and new function FindDistribution. Let's first get a sample of data, say for Boston for recent 5 years:

windBOSTON = WeatherData["Boston", "WindSpeed", {{2010}, {2015}, "Day"}];    
DateListPlot[windBOSTON]

enter image description here

Now get the magnitudes and apply FindDistribution

mags = QuantityMagnitude[windBOSTON["Values"]];
dis = FindDistribution[mags]

which gives, guess what, a MixtureDistribution :

MixtureDistribution[{0.711353, 0.288647}, 
{NormalDistribution[12.8117, 4.74919], LogNormalDistribution[3.06178, 0.308954]}]

Visualizing model versus experimental data looks neat!

Show[
 Histogram[mags, Automatic, "ProbabilityDensity", PlotTheme -> "Detailed"],
 Plot[PDF[dis, x], {x, 0, 50}, PlotRange -> All]]

enter image description here

Try playing with other locations and see what distributions you get. Not always we will get a MixtureDistribution, wind data at different locations can be quite different.

POSTED BY: Vitaliy Kaurov
6 Replies
POSTED BY: Marco Thiel
POSTED BY: Marco Thiel
POSTED BY: Vitaliy Kaurov
POSTED BY: Kay Herbert

Nice work! I still think that there might be a seasonal dependence as well in the distributions.

POSTED BY: Kay Herbert
POSTED BY: Vitaliy Kaurov
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